View Full Version : Fact or Guess?
"I told you everything I know. From this point forth, we shall be leaving the firm foundation of fact and journeying together through the murky marshes of memory into thickets of wildest guesswork. From here on in, Harry, I may be as woefully wrong as Humphrey Belcher, who believed the time was ripe for a cheese cauldron."
"But you think you're right?" said Harry.
"Naturally I do, but as I have already proved to you, I make mistakes like the next man. In fact - forgive me - rather cleverer than most men, my mistakes tend to be correspondingly huger."
JKR always said if she wants to get a point across - she uses Dumbledore or Hermione ...
I think this passage here is very telling ...
There has to be at least one - major part that Dumbledore has tried to guess that is very, very wrong ...
I think this is JKR's wild card - by saying this in the book - any part of what followed in Dumbledore's reflections could be wrong - I think we would do well to escape from the 'But Dumbledore said ...' defences we see cropping up - and perhaps look closer at any contradictions that may appear between facts presented and supposition that follows ...
Sirius Potter Fan
18-08-2005, 14:20
Very good catch Blaise! *applause* I believe you are right in that JKR is sending us a message that Dumbledore may be gravely wrong on something important. . .the first assumption, and the easiest one to believe at first glance when first reading the book is that the mistake was with trusting Snape. Only I think that one almost too obvious, the one thing we have clung to, because "Dumbledore says" only there is much more evidence for Snape other than Dumbledore's trust. Other areas where Dumbledore could have been hugely wrong. . . the total number of Horcruxes? that would provide a startling twist to the end. . . Harry believes them all destroyed, only to find out while battling Voldemort that there is one more remaining. . . A good one that he missed may have been Madame Rosmerta being under the imperious, that certainly was a bad mistake that cost alot. hmmmm lots of possibilities.
yarvelling
18-08-2005, 14:49
Good ones :)
Yes, it does indeed seem that if Dumbledore makes an error of judgement, it is larger by far than any anyone else might make; most unfortunately! And of course, this could work against Harry in the future if we are to assume that Dumbledore is indeed dead....what if some of his ideas, thoughts, etc prove to be wrong....will Harry catch the errors in time; CAN he catch them? IF he could, who would he turn to for help? Would Dumbledore's portrait be able to assist here?
And then of course, as SPF points out....it's almost impossible to second-guess JKR, and maybe almost pointless to try, with the example of Madame Rosmerta....
How many other of the 'incidental' characters that have been introduced over the years could be suspects in a new and devious plot-twist during the seventh and final book? Well....ALL of them!! Along with the dozens of characters that have come and gone, suddenly being potential 'suspects' (who'd have guessed that Madame Rosmerta may have been influenced by the Dark Arts?), and the as yet unresolved issue as to who RAB may be, and of course, any number of new people that may be introduced, it will be fascinating to see how JKR resolves this!
The next couple of years are going to be torture!!!
I am really wondering if maybe he hasn't made a monumental mistake in thinking that Voldermort trusts Snape, and in believing the information that Snape is giving him. And basing some of his conclusions on this information. Even if Snape is good, that doesn't mean Voldermort hasn't been feeding him false information, to set a trap. So a lot of this could make Dumbledore make the wrong conclusions.
Fortescue
18-08-2005, 18:48
Dumbledore said this to Harry on their first meeting - Harry's first lesson with the Pensieve. So, basically the comment leaves most everything Dumbledore said in all the remaining lessons open for error. I think JKR only gave us a whole lot more to doubt in Dumbledore's assumptions.
If you look at the fact that, at this point, Snape had already taken the Unbreakable Vow, and if Dumledore did in fact, not know what was going on, I'd say that was a huge miscalculation on his part.
Really, anything that Dumbledore might have said from that point could be a huge miscalculation. Possibly the fact that he assumed there's a sixth Horcrux when that one might have already been used! :p
The Frozen North
19-08-2005, 07:21
Regarding DD's falability, we have to remember that we get to know things pretty much as Harry does. When Harry was 11 yo DD was this huge figure of whome Harry was very much in awe but as we come up to date, Harry is now 16 yo and more aware of DD's failings. DD is also treating him more like an adult and confiding things in him that his is not 100% sure about, he would not have done this when Harry was younger. Think back to your own childhood, when you were young teachers new everything and were always right but anyone who has been to university knows that the teachers (or rather lecturers) there will often discuss things with you and value your opinion just as much as any other. With greater knowledge and understanding comes greater opportunity but also greater responsibility. I think in being allowed a glimps of DD's frailties we are being allowed to see Harry growing up and being viewed as an adult, gaing more respect form DD and other adult wizards.
Naturally I do, but as I have already proved to you, I make mistakes like the next man. In fact - forgive me - rather cleverer than most men, my mistakes tend to be correspondingly huger."
I am not sure this means is is necessarily about to make a mistake regarding the horcrux theories. It could mean that he's having doubts about Snape. Or just be in reference to the mistakes that we KNOW that he has made throughout the series, starting with hiring Quirrel in the first book, then he left the castle, and only Hermonie's owl got him back in time to save Harry, that was a pretty huge mistake. He also hired Mad Eye Moody and did not notice he was being impersonated the whole year in Goblet of Fire. Beleiving that Snape could teach Harry Occulmency was another one. So it could be in reference to that.
Now, with that all in mind, in regard to this:
Regarding DD's falability, we have to remember that we get to know things pretty much as Harry does. When Harry was 11 yo DD was this huge figure of whome Harry was very much in awe but as we come up to date, Harry is now 16 yo and more aware of DD's failings.
He's more aware of the failings, but also more aware of how awesome dumbledore is with his magical powers, how well he defends, how much he knows regarding magic.
I'm not saying he made a mistake with the Horcruxes theory - what I am saying is that anything that happened from that moment forward could contain a Dumbledore assumption that is very wrong ...
This is relevant based on the fact that Harry believes Dumbledore's word is god - by allowing Harry or even trying to encourage Harry that he can be just as wrong as the next person - hopefully Harry will question things on his own basis as well ...
I found even that interesting - trying to get Harry to think about things without him - another future clue there ;)
What I am proposing is that an assumption is made by Dumbledore that it very wrong - Harry thinks that Dumbledore is right - this could actually lead him down a path that could really place him or his plans in strict danger ...
Most important - JKR has a get out of jail card to warp any manner of what we have assumed to be correct from reading what Dumbledore said ... ;)
Sirius Potter Fan
20-08-2005, 08:52
I agree Blaise, I think this is Dumbledore (and JKR) telling Harry (and us) that believing things are true and accurate, just because Dumbledore says so is a missconception. We ourselves (and Harry) have seen mistakes before, actualy some horid mistakes (fake Moody). The hard thing is, JKR leaves this totaly wide open doesn't she. JKR is pointing us to the fact that there is something Dumbledore has told Harry, or even someone else, that we hold as fact but that is be blatantly wrong. The hardest thing is, that we can only guess at what it can be till she decides to get around to the last book (I assume that everyone is praying for JKR's continued survival! ;) ) I know this can go in many directions, but it does have me thinking about Snape again. I have convinced myself that Snape is good, the clues are there, but there are just as many on the otherside really, and what is the deciding factor? That Dumbledore trusts him? Up untill now, that seemed a really good fact to consider. We are told one reason that Dumbledore trusts him, and have agreed that it alone is pretty lame, and suspect that there must be more, but what if there just isn't? There are other threads to discuss Snape, I am only using it here as argument that there could be many things we have asumed that may not be true. Kinda scary really. Especially that he deems his mistakes to be "correspondingly huger" Maybe makes more sense of what he said in the cave as well.
We are told one reason that Dumbledore trusts him, and have agreed that it alone is pretty lame, and suspect that there must be more, but what if there just isn't?
If there just 'isn't' more to Dumbledore having trusted Snape so much, then JKR's having him say,
I make mistakes like the next man. In fact - forgive me - rather cleverer than most men, my mistakes tend to be correspondingly huger."
Just isn't going to be enough!
It's totally out of character for Dumbledore.
And I know that he was fooled by the fake Moody, and fooled by Quirrel, but these characters were not people Dumbledore had spent recent time with, they did not have the same kind of baggage as Snape, were not even in the same ballpark as Snape. The Dumbledore that we have been shown would have been more suspicious I think at Snape staying behind allegedly to search the forrest, in OOtP, rather than go to the ministry to fight, especially considering that Snape did not manage to find Umbridge, it says that Dumbledore went in and got her. He would have been more suspicious upon hearing that Snape took an unbreakable vow, had there not been more to his trust in Snape.
I do not mean that I think Snape was not capable of fooling Dumbledore, my own theory is that he did manage to do just that, atleast for awhile, but JKR has got to give us more than what we have been given as a basis for the trust.
"Now, you will remember, I hope, that I told you at the very outset of these meetings of ours that we would be entering the realms of guesswork and speculation?"
"Yes, sir."
"Thus far, as I hope you agree, I have shown you reasonably firm sources of fact for my deducations as to what Voldemort did until the age of seventeen?"
Harry nodded.
"But now, Harry," said Dumbledore, "now things become murkier and stranger"
That then leads Dumbledore into telling Harry about how difficult it was to get facts and memories based on Voldemort.
Not sure why - but I think the re-iteration of the point he made at the start suggests to me - a JKR special of saying something she wants us to remeber twice - that anything from this part forward could be wrong ... because this is the point they are moving away from facts ...
I think there is possibly at least one thing that is assumed and taken on board that is wrong from the following things -
1. Riddle @ 17 and his meeting with Hepzibah
2. Dumbledore and his meeting with Voldemort
3. Slughorn's real memory
Just a thought again ;)
Another post eaten -- so I'll rewrite and try to be brief.
I think this could be a "profitable line of inquiry" and so hope to resurrect this topic. I've read the thread and enjoyed all the rich contributions.
At first, I thought that there must be one, really big mistake, as Dumbledore is said to be a voice of truth in the series (by JK). I thought, if so, it should be Snape or Harry/Horcrux, but since both are SO big and SO ruinous, it seems it might cancel out Dumbledore's "being rather cleverer than most men."
But Piper's list of mistakes indicates that there may be several big mistakes (and maybe not utterly ruinous. Should we be looking for 7? Haha!). I'll add that Dumbledore understands Parceltongue and never heard the Basilisk. (Maybe that's not a mistake, though...)
Alz's comment about there being a mistake in Dumbledore's speculation and guesswork is thought-provoking. I think one possibility there is that Dumbledore might not realize there's a Horcrux hidden at Hogwarts. (Although he might have figured that out by the end, when Draco tells him about the Vanishing Cabinets.)
Any other ideas?
gumshoe
That would be an interesting idea - Dumbledore not knowing something at Hogwarts was a Horcrux.. and think about that some more it would be pretty safe there right?
I think - if indeed Dumbledore really did get something wrong - it would be a big thing.
A series of small mistakes would suggest Dumbledore was sloppy in his analysis and I just dont see Dumbledore making that many mistakes.
I would just go as far as to say onw assumption he has made - one that Harry probably accepted and has now also dismissed - will come back and bite Harry hard. At this point he will realise the assumption was wrong and recover somewhat. I think Harry's confidence in Dumbledore does need to be shaken so it does make him question things rather than just accept what he was hearing - because that would be ripe for exploitation (Exit DiE) ...
Maybe Harry will follow and avenue he felt Dumbledore set him on and it might even be his first quest - but hopefully it will shake him enough to question everyone's motivations and not just assume someone is always right because they are so and so - same as someone is evil because of so and so ...
halliemei
07-10-2005, 16:31
DD theorizes that when Nagini was used to kill the old man that the man's death made him realize that he could use her to be last horcrux. That would seem to undermine the possiblity of Harry being a horcrux -- even if inadvertent or accidental. Except that in her interview with Emerson and Melissa (part 3), JKR remarked:
MA: Here at the end you sort of get the feeling that we know what Harry’s setting out to do, but can this really be the entire throughline of the rest of the story?
JKR: It's not all of it. Obviously it's not all of it, but still, that is the way to kill Voldemort. That's not to say it won't be extremely an torturous and winding journey, but that's what he's got to do. Harry now knows — well he believe he knows – what he’s facing. Dumbledore's guesses are never very far wide of the mark. I don't want to give too much away here, but Dumbledore says, ‘There are four out there, you've got to get rid of four, and then you go for Voldemort.’ So that's where he is, and that's what he's got to do.
"Never very far wide of the mark." But that doesn't say he's always EXACTLY right. Actually, it's probably not QUITE right. I think that's the crux of the argument.
My theory . . . VM didn't like going through the whole Horcrux/AK thing every time he wanted a horcrux, so he invented a spell that combined them. That's how the "accidental" horcrux thing happened. If it required preparation or after-work, it wouldn't really work here because (like others have said), VM had not been to GH before and he didn't really have time to do it after. It would necessitate "storing" the part of the soul for the horcrux for Nagini to have been made one after the attack on the muggle. That's not necessarily in cannon.
I think Blaise's original point is interesting from the book, and I think JKR backs it up. Personally, I choose to believe that it's the "location" of the 6th horcrux, but I could see it being something in the castle being a horcrux.
Another interesting point ...
Voldemort at the point of killing the muggle was a recently bodied spirit - as in he just got some form back.
Before this he was a spirit - kept alive because of the horcruxes or born from one of the horcruxes - used versus exist is in another thread ;)
Point being - and a point halliemei is making - that if he sealed another horcrux in GoF - was his soul still having 2 parts?
He planned to make 7 Horcruxes - he has to retain one piece himself - so was he still able to rip his soul one more time given the position he was in?
Another point - are we sure Voldemort killed Frank?
Think about it - he required Pettigrew to kill Cedric when he was still in his baby state - I am going to assume that he wasnt able to do the AK on Frank as well.
Ergo - did he really have the option to seal a Horcrux then?
I think it works to the basis he has to kill the person to then be able to use the ripping to seal a new Horcrux. I am going out on the edge and saying he couldnt have used Frank's death because he wasnt the killer.
god is broke
20-10-2005, 07:18
if we assume that voldy din't kill frank, then it would be likely nagini wouldn't be a horcrux. If DD is worng about that then unless (as people has said in other threads) harry is a horcux, then we are one horcux short of seven. that would be a very big mistake by DD that could come back and ,excuse the pun, bite harry.
I think a big mistake Dumbledore has made is the fact he knew Harry was a horcrux but never had the heart to tell him - because telling someone so young that he would have to find a way of extracting the piece of Voldemort from himself to actually stand a chance of getting rid of Voldemort would be soul destroying.
But still - I really do feel there is one part we saw that Dumbledore got really wrong and the significance will come later on.
Weasleyfanforever
06-05-2006, 10:11
"Never very far wide of the mark." But that doesn't say he's always EXACTLY right. Actually, it's probably not QUITE right. I think that's the crux of the argument.
I would disagree here, I think that she is telling us that Dumbledore was right. She has told us before:
JKR: Absolutely right, I find that all the time in the book, if I need to tell readers something just put it in her. There are only two characters that you can put it convincingly into their dialogue. One is Hermione, the other is Dumbledore. In both cases you accept it, well Dumbledore knows pretty much everything anyway, but that Hermione has read it somewhere.
Lizo: Does Dumbledore speak for you?
JKR: Oh yes, very much so. Dumbledore often speaks for me.
If she needs to tell us something, Dumbledore or Hermione says it (A big d'oh in HBP would be remembering the first time that Hermione mentioned Eileen Prince)
I don't think that Dumbledore was wrong. It was his purpose to protect, and to give out information. Once he had done all the protecting he could, and given all the information he had, he was going to die, but I don't think JKR would lead us astray when Dumbledore's been right so many times before, it's too late in the series for that.
Fortescue
07-05-2006, 06:46
I think there might be an error in Dumbledore's thinking after the time he admitted to Harry they were at the point where fact would turn into guess, but I think the clue JKR was giving was the fact that she showed Dumbledore could be wrong. He wasn't the all seeing all knowing brilliant wizard that we were led to believe in the first five books, but a man who was allowed to make mistakes. If we think of all that happened after that point, the things Harry learned about the eavesdropper, and how the book ended with Snape running off into the night, JKR could be trying to make us believe that Dumbledore was wrong in trusting Snape all along.
She showed us that Dumbledore could make mistakes as exampled with his blackened hand and the fact that a great wizard like himself would think that something as valuable as an object that housed a bit of Voldemort's soul might be booby trapped and take precautions before he actually touched it. Dumbledore made many mistakes starting in OotP and going through his demise in HBP. I think she was trying to show us that he wasn't perfect and that fact might allow us to believe his faith in Snape was misplaced, although, I don't think Dumbledore was wrong about that.
Totally agree - it is what you call insurance ...
JKR laid the foundations and also the rules - the second quote showed this - up till that point Dumbledore had been quite right in his thinkings and observations - but then JKR inserted her insurance ...
If Dumbledore it true and to be believed all the time - then she had nothing to do, she would let Dumbledore do what he does best - but no, she actually comes out and say pretty much 'I think I might get something wrong - just so you know Harry' and thus gives her defence when someone comes back to her with Wheezy's quotes - she will say 'heck, well I spelt out that Dumbledore might be making an assumption that is wrong' ...
I have no arguments in what Wheezy said to start with - but the fact these comments were introduced was to make us all aware that something Dumbledore surmises will in all likelihood be wrong - and thus insurance paid ... ;)
Seeker615
08-05-2006, 05:09
I am inclined to think maybe DD suspected Harry to be a horcux but didn't want to believe it so he never really pursued it. He is very fond of Harry and he has put off telling him things in the past. He himself had said how unwise it would be to store a piece of your soul in a living thing because it can think for itself. how terrible would it be to have Harry have a piece of Voldy's soul in him and know it!
It would surely make it harder for him to complete his mission knowing that he may have to be destroyed too.
Weasleyfanforever
08-05-2006, 07:04
I am inclined to think maybe DD suspected Harry to be a horcux but didn't want to believe it so he never really pursued it. He is very fond of Harry and he has put off telling him things in the past.
I have three quotes here:
"The truth." Dumbledore sighed. "It is a beautiful and terrible thing, and should therefore be treated with great caution. However, I shall answer your questions unless I have a very good reason not to, in which case I beg you'll forgive me. I shall not, of course, lie."
"I don't think so." said Dumbledore. "I think I know what the sixth Horcrux is. I wonder what you will say when I confess that I have been curious for a while about the behavior of the snake, Nagini?"
"So," Harry said, "the diary's gone, the rings gone. The Cup, the locket, and the snake are still intact, and yiu think there might be a Horcrux that was once Ravenclaw's or Gryffindor's?"
"An admirably succininct and accurate summary, yes," said Dumbledore, bowing his head.
In the last one, Dumbledore basically tells Harry all of those things, but it would have been like a two page quote :p Anyways, Dumbledore has not lied to Harry in the past, that we know of. He has said he will not. He tells Harry that he thinks Nagini is a horcrux, and what he believes the six horcruxes are. If we are to assume he is not and has not lied to Harry up to this point, then it would be logical to say that no, he does not and has not ever believed Harry to be a horcrux. He may have told Harry in the past that he could not tell him things, but that is not what happens here. He tells him what he believes to be true, and I doubt he is lying.
Seeker615
08-05-2006, 09:40
I don't think he would ever lie to Harry. Maybe the possibility of Harry being a Horcrux is so unimaginable that he wouldn't ever even consider it. (Or maybe it never occurred to him that Harry was made into an accidental Horcrux) He admits to making much bigger mistakes than most and this could be a biggie.
I think the part that always lead me to the possibility of Harry being a horcrux is when Dumbledore said it would be dangerous for a piece of soul to be placed inside a living thing because it can think for itself. That comment alone set me thinking that it is possible that Harry may be a horcrux. (accidently made of course)
Agreed - I'm not convinced Dumbledore would openly deceive Harry unless there was a more over-riding reason for it - one could argue that learning in order to make Voldemort mortal you have to lay your own life down could qualify for it?
We all need hope to continue in life - I think telling Harry that before he even stands a chance of defeating Voldemort he has to track the last few Horcruxes and then work out how to rid the one inside him would be too much for Harry to cope with - in effect telling him truly that one will die at the hands of the other because both cant live while the other survives!
IF, and I state this in upper case, IF, he did tell Harry a lie - it would be once again to protect Harry from the knowledge and hope that when Harry finally works it out - he will find a way of ridding himself of the horcrux so he can continue to a mortal Voldemort - veil is still sounding good :p
I did catch this earlier - tenuous I admit - but still I like it a lot!!
This mantra seemed to pulse through Harry's mind as he fell asleep at night, and his dreams were thick with cups, lockets and mysterious objects that he could not quite reach, though Dumbledore helpfully offered Harry a rope ladder that turned to snakes the moment he began to climb ...
I hope you got from that what I did - Dumbledore trying to HELP Harry but instead the help turned against him - like someone told him something and then it turned out not to be right ... the snakes the whole deal - it is a BIG sign!!
What I am proposing is that an assumption is made by Dumbledore that it very wrong - Harry thinks that Dumbledore is right - this could actually lead him down a path that could really place him or his plans in strict danger ...
That's a very interesting catch. Nice one.
The first thing that came into my head was something which struck me as a little off when Dumbledore proposed it in HBP - that Nagini is the final horcrux. This could be borderline catastrophic if Harry leaves her until last, believing unquestionably that Dumbledore's hunch was right. Afterall, going after Nagini is for all intents and purposes the same as going after Voldemort himself, since he keeps her close. To go into that fight only to discover the horcrux is something else entirely could be... problematic.
I think you are quite right - Harry needs to realise, for himself, if Dumbledore's thoughts are indeed correct - because to take them at face value, especially in this case - would be a total disaster ...
I think Nagini was to become a Horcrux - but sealed with Harry's death in the graveyard we saw in GoF - that was her reward for helping Voldemort back to life!
I think Harry will realise that something is up with that guess about Nagini - this quote seems to scream it - Harry is already unconsciously figuring it out ...
This mantra seemed to pulse through Harry's mind as he fell asleep at night, and his dreams were thick with cups, lockets and mysterious objects that he could not quite reach, though Dumbledore helpfully offered Harry a rope ladder that turned to snakes the moment he began to climb ...
Glumbumble
24-10-2006, 07:12
Another point - are we sure Voldemort killed Frank?
Think about it - he required Pettigrew to kill Cedric when he was still in his baby state - I am going to assume that he wasnt able to do the AK on Frank as well.
Ergo - did he really have the option to seal a Horcrux then?
And then the chair was facing Frank, and he saw what was sitting in it. His walking stick fell to the floor with a clatter. He opened his mouth and let out a scream. He was screaming so loudly that he never heard the words the thing in the chair spoke as it raised a wand. There was a flash of green light, a rushing sound, and Frank Bryce crumpled. He was dead before he hit the floor.
I think that the quote indicates that Voldemort did, in fact kill Frank Bryce.
"The truth." Dumbledore sighed. "It is a beautiful and terrible thing, and should therefore be treated with great caution. However, I shall answer your questions unless I have a very good reason not to, in which case I beg you'll forgive me. I shall not, of course, lie."
Dumbledore continues to keep important information away from Harry to the last. When Harry constantly tells DD about Malfoy DD appears to dismiss it but in the end we learn 'I haven't got any options!' said Malfoy, and he was suddenly as white as Dumbledore. 'I've got to do it! He'll kill me! He'll kill my whole family!'
'I appreciate the difficulty of your position,' said Dumbledore. 'Why else do you think I have not confronted you before now? Because I knew that you would have been murdered if Lord Voldemort realised that I suspected you.'
Harry has plenty of reason to believe that DD makes mistakes, Harry thinks that Snape is not fighting LV, so he should be rather circumspect about some other of DD’s beliefs.
My view is that DD’s mistake is in thinking that Nagini is a horcrux. The closeness between LV and Nagini is, I think, because LV inhabited the snake from time to time before his rebirth. This is shown when Nagini attacks Mr. Weasley. Harry sees what LV is seeing but from the body of the snake.
I believe you are right - the mistake Dumbledore makes is believing that Nagini is a horcrux - and if Harry goes to battle Voldemort on this premise, it could spell disaster - or be a massive shoe for who the real horcrux is ...
This statement was created to give JKR a 'get out' clause so no-one can slam her later on in webchats that she decieved the readers by having Dumbledore be wrong - he said it himself!
Hoggy Warty Hogwarts
30-10-2006, 20:30
I believe you are right - the mistake Dumbledore makes is believing that Nagini is a horcrux - and if Harry goes to battle Voldemort on this premise, it could spell disaster - or be a massive shoe for who the real horcrux is ...
This statement was created to give JKR a 'get out' clause so no-one can slam her later on in webchats that she decieved the readers by having Dumbledore be wrong - he said it himself!
I always thought that Dumbledore says that we can rule out Nagini is a horcrux, but then again i could be remembering the wrong thing because its been a while since i read it.. i think i will have to go and check that one out
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